Ethereum has returned to the red as it was rejected as a major area of resistance. The cryptocurrency is bleeding out and records the second-worst performance in the crypto top 10 by market capitalization with a 10% loss in the last 24 hours. Solana (SOL) holds the number one position with a 13% loss.
The general sentiment in the market seems to be at an all-time low, but there is room for it to enter into a capitulation state, according to Daniel Cheung, Co-Founder at Pangea Fund Management. ETH’s price could succumb to macroeconomic conditions.
Cheung claims the second crypto by market cap is correlated with traditional equities, in particular with the Nasdaq 100 via the Invesco QQQ Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). In that sense, the crypto market has become susceptible to stock price movement making it “a market regime where it is all just one big Macro trade”.
Source: Daniel Cheung via Twitter
The analysis claims that Ethereum could see a 40% drop from its current levels as the Nasdaq 100 has “a lot of room to fall”. This index has only experienced a 30% crash, and historically it has dropped by as much as 45%.
The potential upcoming crash in the Nasdaq 100 (tech stocks), and in Ethereum as a consequence, will be driven by a poor earnings season, Cheung believes. This is one of the conditions that could force ETH’s price to break below $1,000 and into $500 for the first time since 2020.
The analysis claims that the traditional market is misreading the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). The institution is attempting to slow down inflation, currently at a 40-year-old high as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), by increasing interest rates and unloading its balance sheet into the market.
ETH’s price trends to the downside on the 4-hour chart. Source: ETHUSD Tradingview
The objective is to reduce consumer demand, and reduce prices across global markets, in hopes that this will bring down inflation. Market participants seem to be underestimating the Fed, and thus could be unprepared for the consequences, Cheung argues:
(…) there will likely be more iterations of lower earnings revisions that follow over the coming months especially given this is a market regime that very few investors have experienced This will bring equities lower and crypto to follow with it more downside to come.
In fact, the analysis argues that the U.S. could already be in an economic recession. This could bolster the Fed to put more pressure on the market, having an even worse impact on Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies.
This could be confirmed today with the report on GDP growth to be posted by U.S. financial entities. If this report spells economic slowdown, adding more downside pressure and further impacting companies’ earnings season, Cheung claims while adding:
If the GDP print + CPI print + FOMC commentary all play out according to plan – we will likely be at a triple digit $ETH price once again. However, the land mine that investors would have to overcome would still not be over as 2Q22 company earnings would be just on the horizon.