The elusive relief rally that BTC and ETH traders expected has arrived, but will the market sustain enough bullish momentum to catalyze a trend change?
After creating the dubious record of nine successive red weekly closes, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to make amends by starting a price recovery to end the losing streak. Analysts have repeatedly said that investors should not fear a bear market because it is one of the best times to invest in fundamentally strong projects in preparation for the next bull phase.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju highlighted that unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) that are older than six months reflect 62% of the realized cap, which is similar to the level seen during the March 2020 crash. Hence, Ki said that Bitcoin may be close to forming a cyclic bottom.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
In the current bearish environment, it is difficult to fathom a Bitcoin rally to $250,000 but billionaire investor Tim Draper is still bullish. While speaking on a YouTube show on May 24, Draper said that if more retailers start accepting Bitcoin, participation from women will increase as they will buy things with Bitcoin. According to Draper, this could boost Bitcoin’s price above his target objective of $250,000.
With several analysts calling for a bottom in Bitcoin, is it a good time to buy? Could the crypto markets start a recovery in the short term? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin broke above the downtrend line on May 30 and the bulls are attempting to sustain the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($30,562). If they succeed, it will be the first indication that the bears may be losing their grip.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price sustains above the 20-day EMA, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to $32,659 and later to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($34,954). The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the relative strength index (RSI) has risen above 46, suggesting that bulls are attempting a comeback.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then make another attempt to pull the pair below $28,630 and challenge the May 12 intraday low at $26,700. A break below this support could signal the resumption of the downtrend.
Ether (ETH) bounced off the vital support at $1,700 on May 28 and is marching toward the 20-day EMA ($2,026). This suggests that bulls are attempting to start a sustained recovery.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The RSI is showing a bullish divergence suggesting that the selling pressure may be reducing. The buyers will try to push the price above the 20-day EMA and challenge the breakdown level at $2,159. If bulls fail to clear this hurdle, the BNB/USDT pair may turn down and consolidate between $1,700 and $2,159.
If bulls thrust the price above $2,159, it will suggest that $1,700 may be the bottom in the short term. The pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($2,504). This bullish view could be invalidated if the price turns down and plummets below $1,700.
BNB took support near the immediate support at $286 on May 27, suggesting that traders are buying the dips. The bulls will now again attempt to push the price above the overhead resistance at $320.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If they succeed, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to $350. The longer the price sustains above $320, the greater the possibility that the bottom has been made on May 12. If bulls overcome the barrier at $350, the rally could reach $400.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from the current level or $350, it will suggest that bears are selling on rallies. That could again pull the price to the immediate support at $286. If this support cracks, the pair could decline to $260.
Although Ripple (XRP) dipped below $0.38 on May 26, the bears could not maintain the selling pressure. This started a recovery on May 28, which has reached the downtrend line.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears have repeatedly mounted a strong defense at the downtrend line; hence, this is an important resistance to keep an eye on. If the price reverses direction from the downtrend line, the bears will try to pull the XRP/USDT pair below $0.37 and challenge the crucial support at $0.33.
On the contrary, if buyers drive and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.43), it will suggest that the sellers may be losing their grip. The pair could then rally to the psychological level at $0.50.
Cardano (ADA) broke below the minor support at $0.46 on May 27 but the bears could not build upon the advantage. The bulls purchased this dip and started a recovery on May 28.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The relief rally picked up momentum on May 30 and the bulls are attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.54). If they succeed, it will suggest that the ADA/USDT pair is attempting to form a bottom. The pair could then rise to $0.61 and later attempt a rally to the breakdown level of $0.74.
This positive view could be negated if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the bears will again try to sink the pair below $0.40 and start the next leg of the downward move.
Solana (SOL) recovered from $40 on May 28, indicating that lower levels continue to attract buying by the bulls. The buyers will now try to push the price to the 20-day EMA ($53).
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If bulls propel the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the downtrend could be weakening. The SOL/USDT pair may then rise to $60 and thereafter rally to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $66.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. That could increase the possibility of a retest of $37.37. A break below this support may start the next leg of the downtrend.
Dogecoin (DOGE) plunged below $0.08 on May 26 but made a strong comeback on May 27. This suggests aggressive buying at lower levels but the bears are not ready to give up their advantage as they continue to defend the 20-day EMA ($0.09) with vigor.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls will again try to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If they do that, the DOGE/USDT pair could rise to the psychological level at $0.10. This level may again act as a resistance but if bulls overcome this hurdle, the pair could rally to $0.12.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA or $0.10, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. That could pull the pair down to $0.08 and later to the May 12 intraday low of $0.06.
Polkadot (DOT) formed a Doji candlestick pattern on May 27, suggesting indecision among the bulls and the bears. This uncertainty resolved to the upside and bulls pushed the price to the overhead resistance at $10.37.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If buyers propel the price above the overhead resistance, it could open the doors for a possible rally to $12. If bulls clear this hurdle, the next stop could be $14. A break and close above this resistance could indicate that the DOT/USDT pair may have bottomed out.
This positive view could invalidate if the price turns down sharply from the current level and breaks below $8.56. That could result in a decline to the May 12 intraday low of $7.30. The bears will have to sink the price below this level to indicate the resumption of the downtrend.
Avalanche (AVAX) dipped below the strong support at $23.51 on May 26 but the bears could not capitalize on this advantage. The bulls bought the dip on May 27 and started a recovery on May 28.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls will attempt to push the price to the 20-day EMA ($32.42), which is an important level to keep an eye on. If the price turns down from this resistance, the bears will try to retest the May 27 intraday low at $21.35. If this support cracks, the AVAX/USDT pair could slide to the psychological level at $20.
The RSI is showing a positive divergence, indicating that the selling pressure could be reducing. If bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to $38 and later attempt an up-move to $46.
The bulls successfully defended the support at $0.000010 on May 27, which resulted in a rebound on May 28. Shiba Inu (SHIB) continued its recovery and has reached the 20-day EMA ($0.000012), which is likely to act as a strong resistance.
SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again attempt to sink the SHIB/USDT pair below $0.000010. If that happens, the pair could retest the critical support at $0.000009.
Alternatively, if bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the downtrend may be weakening. The pair could then attempt a rally to $0.000014 and later to the breakdown level at $0.000017. The bulls will have to clear this overhead hurdle to signal a potential change in trend.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.