The Fed’s decision on interest rates is due Wednesday — and everyone in Bitcoin is talking about it.
Bitcoin (BTC) upped the volatility into the weekly close on March 13 as markets braced for geopolitical and macro economic cues.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Long-awaited Fed action set to come this week
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it again came close to testing $38,000 support during Sunday.
The pair had seen a quiet end to the week on Wall Street, the weekend proving similarly calm as the status quo both within and outside crypto continued without surprises.
Now, attention was already focusing beyond Sunday’s close, specifically on the upcoming decision on interest rates from the United States Federal Reserve.
Due March 16, the extent of the presumed rate hike could provide temporary volatility and even a longer-lasting trend change for risk assets, depending on its size.
The situation between Russian and Ukraine likewise remained a major focus, amid faint signs that consensus between negotiators could be coming sooner rather than later.
For monitoring resource Material Indicators, the Bitcoin chart showed spot price between the 50-week and 100-week moving average (WMA), prior to the Fed’s decision.
“BTC price continues to range between the 50 & 100 WMA,” it summarized to Twitter followers on the day.
Popular trader and analyst Crypto Ed meanwhile described the weekend’s action as “slow” amid an absence of significant support or resistance retests, while fellow analyst Matthew Hyland likened Bitcoin’s behavior to “watching paint dry.”
For stocks, however, it was a welcome rest from another week of heavy comedowns.
Global stocks have lost another $2.5tn in mkt cap this week as investors have been positioning around developments in #Ukraine, #stagflation fears, a hawkish tilt from #ECB, and ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Global equities now worth $107.5tn equal to 127% of global GDP. pic.twitter.com/pFDynD1NS3
Russia’s stock market remained closed throughout the week and was likewise set to see no equities trading until at least March 18.
Major pullback “cannot be ruled out,” says analyst
After calls for a more substantial BTC/USD retracement, however, advice was coming in over a potential opportunity to “buy the dip.”
Related: Bitcoin threatens $38K as 3-day chart hints at March 2020 COVID-19 crash repeat
Bitcoin’s 200WMA and logarithmic growth curve, at just above $20,000 and $30,000, respectively, could form potential macro support levels should such an event occur, according to trading suite Decentrader.
In its latest market update released Friday, the firm argued that the scenario “cannot be ruled out.”
“Such a crash could take Bitcoin down towards the bottom of the logarithmic growth curve, which continues to climb and is now above $30,000 for the first time. Beyond that lies the 200WMA, which is also climbing and now at $20,500,” it read.
Its position on the market, however, would turn “mid-term bearish.”